A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
